Potential effects of global warming on waterfowl population breeding in the northern Great Plains / Lisa G. Sorenson, Richard Goldberg, Terry L. Root, and Michael G. Anderson.

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Sorenson, Lisa G

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Material type: Text

TextSeries: Climatic Change. 40(2): 343-369 Publication details: 1998.Description: illustrations ; 28 cmLOC classification:

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Summary: The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the Northern Great Plains is the most important breeding area for waterfowl in North America. Historically, the size of breeding duck populations in the PPR has been highly correlated with spring wetland conditions. We show that one indicator of climate conditions, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), is strongly correlated with annual counts (from 1955 to 1996) of both May ponds (R2; 0.72, p < 0:0001) and breeding duck populations (R2 ; 0.69, p < 0.0001) in the Northcentral U.S., suggesting the utility vf PDSI as an index for climatic factors important to wetlands and ducks. We then use this relationship to project future pond and duck numbers based on PDSI values generated from sensitivity analyses and two general circulation model (GCM) scenarios. We investigate the sensitivity of PDSI to fixed changes in temperature of 0°C, -tL5°C, -t2.5°C, au<l -t4.0"C in combination with fixed changes in precipitation of -10%, +0%, +7%, aud +15%, changes spanning the range of typically~projected values for this region from human~induced climatic change, Most (I I of 12) increased temperature scenarios tested result in incre.11..;;pd drnnght (due to greater evapotranspiration under warmer temperatures) and declining numbers of both wetlands and ducks. Assuming a doubling of CO2 by 2060, both the equilibrium and transient GCM scenarios we use suggest a major increase in drought conditions, Under these scenarios, Northcentral U.S. breeding duck populations would fluctuate around means of 2.1 or 2. 7 million ducks based on the two GCMs, respectively, instead of the present long"term mean of 5.0 million. May pond numbers would fluctuate around means of 0.6 or 0.8 million ponds instcud of the present mean of 1.3 rnillilJJl. TI1e reiiulLs suggesl that the ecologically and econornically important PPR could be significantly damaged by climate changes typically projected. We make several recommendations for policy and research to help mitigate potential effects.

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Includes bibliographical references (pages 366-369).

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the Northern Great Plains is the most
important breeding area for waterfowl in North America. Historically, the size of breeding duck
populations in the PPR has been highly correlated with spring wetland conditions. We show
that one indicator of climate conditions, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), is strongly
correlated with annual counts (from 1955 to 1996) of both May ponds (R2; 0.72, p < 0:0001)
and breeding duck populations (R2 ; 0.69, p < 0.0001) in the Northcentral U.S., suggesting
the utility vf PDSI as an index for climatic factors important to wetlands and ducks. We then use
this relationship to project future pond and duck numbers based on PDSI values generated from
sensitivity analyses and two general circulation model (GCM) scenarios. We investigate the
sensitivity of PDSI to fixed changes in temperature of 0°C, -tL5°C, -t2.5°C, au<l -t4.0"C in
combination with fixed changes in precipitation of -10%, +0%, +7%, aud +15%, changes
spanning the range of typically~projected values for this region from human~induced climatic
change, Most (I I of 12) increased temperature scenarios tested result in incre.11..;;pd drnnght (due
to greater evapotranspiration under warmer temperatures) and declining numbers of both
wetlands and ducks. Assuming a doubling of CO2 by 2060, both the equilibrium and transient
GCM scenarios we use suggest a major increase in drought conditions, Under these scenarios,
Northcentral U.S. breeding duck populations would fluctuate around means of 2.1 or 2. 7
million ducks based on the two GCMs, respectively, instead of the present long"term mean of
5.0 million. May pond numbers would fluctuate around means of 0.6 or 0.8 million ponds
instcud of the present mean of 1.3 rnillilJJl. TI1e reiiulLs suggesl that the ecologically and
econornically important PPR could be significantly damaged by climate changes typically
projected. We make several recommendations for policy and research to help mitigate potential
effects.

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