Combining band recovery data and Pollock's robust design to model temporary and permanent emigration / M.S. Lindberg, W.L. Kendall, J.E. Hines, and Michael G. Anderson.

Includes bibliographical references (pages 273-281).

Capture-recapture models are widely used to estimate demographic parameters of marked
populations. Recently, this statistical theory has been extended to modeling dispersal of open populations.
Multistate models can be used to estimate movement probabilities among subdivided populations if multiple
sites are sampled. Frequently, however, sampling is limited to a single site. Models described by Burnham
(1993, in Marked Individuals in the Study of Bird Populations, 199-213), which combined open population
capture-recapture and band-recovery models, can be used to estimate permanent emigration when sampling
is limited to a single population. Similarly, Kendall, Nichols, and Hines (1997, Ecology 51, 563-578) developed
models to estimate temporary emigration under Pollock's (1982, Journal of Wildlife Management 46,
757-760) robust design. We describe a likelihood-based approach to simultaneously estimate temporary and
permanent emigration when sampling is limited to a single population. We use a sampling design that combines
the robust design and recoveries of individuals obtained immediately following each sampling period.
We present a general form for our model where temporary emigration is a first-order Markov process, and
we discuss more restrictive models. We illustrate these models with analysis of data on marked Canvasback
ducks. Our analysis indicates that probability of permanent emigration for adult female Canvasbacks was
0.193 (SE= 0.082) and that birds that were present at the study area in year i - 1 had a higher probability
of presence in year i than birds that were not present in year i - 1.