Building the foundation for international conservation planning for breeding ducks across the U.S. and Canadian border / Kevin E. Doherty, Jeffry S. Evans, Johann Walker, James H. Devries, and David W. Howerter.

Includes bibliographical references.

We used publically available data on duck breeding distribution and recently compiled geospatial
data on upland habitat and environmental conditions to develop a spatially explicit
model of breeding duck populations across the entire Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). Our
spatial population models were able to identify key areas for duck conservation across the
PPR and predict between 62.1 – 79.1% (68.4% avg.) of the variation in duck counts by year
from 2002 – 2010. The median difference in observed vs. predicted duck counts at a transect
segment level was 4.6 ducks. Our models are the first seamless spatially explicit models
of waterfowl abundance across the entire PPR and represent an initial step toward joint
conservation planning between Prairie Pothole and Prairie Habitat Joint Ventures. Our work
demonstrates that when spatial and temporal variation for highly mobile birds is incorporated
into conservation planning it will likely increase the habitat area required to support defined
population goals. A major goal of the current North American Waterfowl Management
Plan and subsequent action plan is the linking of harvest and habitat management. We contend
incorporation of spatial aspects will increase the likelihood of coherent joint harvest
and habitat management decisions. Our results show at a minimum, it is possible to produce
spatially explicit waterfowl abundance models that when summed across survey strata
will produce similar strata level population estimates as the design-based Waterfowl Breeding
Pair and Habitat Survey (r2 = 0.977). This is important because these design-based population
estimates are currently used to set duck harvest regulations and to set duck
population and habitat goals for the North American Waterfowl Management Plan. We hope
this effort generates discussion on the important linkages between spatial and temporal variation
in population size, and distribution relative to habitat quantity and quality when linking
habitat and population goals across this important region.